The Peril of Peaking Powers: Economic Slowdowns and Implications for China's Next Decade

Abstract From ancient times to the present, rising powers have taken up arms reorder world. Yet such violent revisionism poses a puzzle: If power is profiting from existing order, why would it disrupt that progress with reckless fit of expansion? One reason slowing economic growth. Over past 150 years, peaking powers, meaning whose booms slowed but not yet stopped, been most dangerous kind country. An extended period rapid growth equipped them means shake world, and then protracted slowdown motivated move aggressively try rekindle their rise. Peaking dynamics help explain some consequential geopolitical events in modern history, including surge U.S. imperialism late nineteenth century, outbreak World War II, Russia's 2014 aggression against Ukraine. These findings amend classic theories great conflict ominous implications for contemporary Chinese foreign policy.